“The Shape of Water” is shaping up as the film to beat at this year’s Academy Awards.

Tuesday, it received 13 nominations, including nods for Best Picture, Actress (Sally Hawkins), Supporting Actor (Richard Jenkins), Supporting Actress (Octavia Spencer) and Director (Guillermo del Toro). Del Toro, alone, could win three awards.

Among those snubbed: Tom Hanks (“The Post”), James Franco (“The Disaster Artist”), Armie Hammer (“Call Me By Your Name”), Jessica Chastain (“Molly’s Game”) and Holly Hunter (“The Big Sick”).

While “The Post” scored nominations for Best Picture and Best Actress (Meryl Streep), it didn’t land in other categories, suggesting its hopes are fairly slim.

“The Phantom Thread” emerged as the film with the most surprise momentum. It got nods for Best Picture, Best Director (Paul Thomas Anderson), Best Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis), Best Supporting Actress (Lesley Manville) and Best Costumes.

If there’s a real threat to “Shape of Water,” it’s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”

It scored nominations for Best Picture, Best Actress (Frances McDormand), Best Supporting Actor (Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell), Best Editing, Best Score and Best Screenplay.

Among the surprises: Denzel Washington slipping in for “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”; Christopher Plummer for “All the Money in the World”; Lesley Manville for “Phantom Thread.”

Two categories bear watching if you’re looking to crack the Oscar prediction code: Best Director and Best Editing.

Usually (not always) there’s a connection between Best Picture and one of those categories.

That says the ones to beat are “Dunkirk,” “Get Out,” “Lady Bird,” “Phantom Thread” and “The Shape of Water” (the directing nominees) and “Dunkirk,” “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards” (the editing nominees also on the Best Picture list).

“Dunkirk,” which was an early favorite, came away with eight nominations, none of them in acting or writing categories.

“Get Out,” another summer favorite, scored in Picture, Actor (Daniel Kaluuya), Director (Jordan Peele) and Screenplay. Like del Toro, Peele could go home with three trophies.

While “I, Tonya” was considered a likely Best Picture nominee if the field stretched to 10 (it stopped at nine), it didn’t score there, but got attention for Best Actress (Margot Robbie), Supporting Actress (Allison Janney) and Editing.

Trivia: Four of the Best Picture nominees were released in November, three in December and one each in February and July.



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